Irrational Exuberance Headlines

  • Kolanovic Asks "How Close Are We To The Market Top" And Answers

    "How close are we to the market top?" While that is and always has been the question on every trader and investor's lips, it is also what an increasingly greater number of more and more nervous JPMorgan clients wants to know, especially those who, according to JPM head quant Marko Kolanovic - want to protect strong YTD gains or chase year end performance. What sucks is being designated the person responsible with answering this question. In this case, that's person is the quant guru himself, who...

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  • FOMC Minutes Preview: Beware A Dovish Surprise By A "Very Uncertain" Yellen

    The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used to describe the US economy, which is now seen to be expanding at a “solid rate” (versus “rising moderately” before), despite the disruptions caused by the recent hurricanes. This implicit...

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  • "Very Close To Irrational Exuberance": Asian Equities Break Above All-Time High As Hang Seng Clears 30,000

    Following the new all-time high in US equities, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index broke through its November 2007 peak to make an all-time high in Wednesday’s trading session. This was something we noted could happen yesterday in “SocGen: Asian Equities Are So Awesome, A China Minsky Moment Is ‘Manageable”. The dollar weakened slightly after outgoing Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, cautioned against interest rates rising too quickly in one of her last Q&As at NYU on Tuesday evening. The MSCI Emerging...

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  • Goldman Bets On "Rational Exuberance": Unveils Its S&P Price Targets, Sees Bull Market Lasting Until 2020

    Just days after Barclays released its 2018 equity outlook with the title "Rational Exuberance"... ... Goldman's David Kostin decided that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery and in presenting his S&P price target* for 2018 (and 2019 and 2020), and has named his preview report the same: We footnoted price target, because once again Kostin has decided to avoid making a definitive forecast for where the S&P will go in the near term, and instead - as he did one month ago - has left...

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  • Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off

    UK debt crisis is here - consumer spending, employment and sterling fall while inflation takes off  - Personal debt crisis coming to fore - litigation cases go beyond 2008 levels- October consumer spending fell by 2% in October, the fastest year-on-year decline in four years- Britons ‘face expensive Christmas dinner’ as food price inflation soars- Gold investors buying physical gold due to precarious UK and US outlook Editor: Mark O'Byrne The long heralded UK debt crisis is here and data...

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  • Bank Of America: "This Is A Clear Sign Of Irrational Exuberance"

    The latest monthly Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America confirmed what recent market actions have already demonstrated, namely that, as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett explained, there is a "big market conviction in Goldilocks leading to capitulation into risk assets" while at the same time sending Fund managers' cash levels to a 4-year low, and pushing "risk-taking" to a new all-time high, surpassing both the dot com and the 2007 bubbles. BofA's takeaways from the survey,...

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  • Will China Bring An Energy-Debt Crisis?

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog, It is easy for those of us in the West to overlook how important China has become to the world economy, and also the limits it is reaching. The two big areas in which China seems to be reaching limits are energy production and debt. Reaching either of these limits could eventually cause a collapse. China is reaching energy production limits in a way few would have imagined. As long as coal and oil prices were rising, it made sense to keep...

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  • A Record Number Of Americans Are Going On Vacation: Why That Is Bad News For The Market

    Having identified virtually every single asset bubble of the current cycle (as well as a few extra), SocGen's cranky strategist Albert Edwards has found yet another place where there is irrational exuberance: vacations, and ever the optimist, Edwards has a message for Americans: enjoy it while you can, because it won't last.  In a note titled "Who needs wage inflation when even vacations have become a bubble" , the SocGen strategist observes that "more Americans plan to take a holiday in the...

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