Recession Headlines

  • Labor Market Conundrum: Number Of Millennials Living At Home With Mom Continues To Surge

    Nary a day goes by that President Trump and/or the talking heads on CNBC fail to mention the following unemployment chart as evidence that "everything is awesome" with the U.S. economy... ...which might be true unless you're among the 95 million-ish Americans who have been looking for a job for so long that you no longer even count as a human being to the Bureau of Labor Statistics... ...or if you're a millennial. Despite being the most educated generation ever to walk the face of the planet,...

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  • Millennials Have Ushered In The 'Baby Bust' Cycle

    Negative Population Growth, Inc., has issued a November report warning that America is no longer making enough babies to keep pace with deaths. The report blames, the ‘baby bust’ phase on the millennial generation (1980-2000), who are having children at record low rates. Their attitudes towards marriage, procreation, and materialism changed dramatically after the Great Recession when the economies of the world came to a screeching halt. After a decade of excessive monetary policy from the...

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  • Give Thanks For Turkey-flation

    Via LPLResearch.com, As we near Thanksgiving Day, investors have many things for which to be thankful; from a global bull market in equities, led partly by a strong resurgence in corporate earnings, to very few signs of a recession starting over the next 12-18 months. There are a few near-term catalysts we’re watching, but there are also many longer-term positive signs. And since we’ve already talked a lot about how 2017 has so far been one of the strongest and least volatile bull markets ever,...

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  • Positive Feedback Loops, Financial Instability, & The Blind Spot Of Policymakers

    Authored by Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital, “Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.” – Leonardo da Vinci A Dangerous Market Structure is More Worrying than Expensive Asset Valuations and Record Debt Levels Macro-prudential regulations follow financial crises, rarely do they precede one. Even when evidence is abundant of systemic risks building up, as is today, regulators and policymakers have a marked tendency to turn an institutional blind eye, hoping for...

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  • Blain: "Stop Worrying About The Yield Curve, Something Much Worse Is Around The Corner"

    From Blain's Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners Stop worrying about the US yield curve - its a distortion. Something much worse is around the corner.... A bit of a feeding frenzy in the new issue primary bond market as 21 deals hit the screen and went fairly well. With Thanksgiving tomorrow it’s likely the tail of the week will be very quiet, but our primary trading team reckon there is still plenty of momentum. We’re likely to see another two weeks of proper activity...

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  • Asian Stocks Smash Records; Dollar Slides As Crude Surges To July 2015 Highs

    Global shares hit another record high on Wednesday, propelled higher by what increasingly more call (ir)rational exuberance, and investors’ unflagging enthusiasm for tech stocks. That said, S&P futures are unchanged the morning before Thanksgiving (at least before the market open ramp), as are European stocks (Stoxx 600 is flat), despite the euphoria in the Asian session which saw the MSCI Asia Pac index hit a new all time high... ... as oil jumped, rising as much as $1.15 to $57.98/bbl,...

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  • Stockman On America's Fiscal Sundown, Part 1

    Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The Senate Finance Committee tax bill is not supply side and it's not even a tax cut; it's a gimmick-ridden policy mongrel that smells to high heaven of political desperation and cynicism. Contrary to the Donald's delusional promise that the American people will get some tax cut sugar plums for Christmas, we are reasonably confident that this misbegotten exercise in reverse-robin hood economics won't reach his desk. But whether it passes in some...

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  • Mauldin: A Generational Reset Redistributing Wealth To The Bottom 60% Is Near

    Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com, Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends. Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly. In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them. Wealth and income levels are so skewed between the top and the bottom that...

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  • Yield Curve Carnage Continues

    The US Treasury yield curve collapse continued its unending path to inversion overnight with 2s10s plunging to sub-60bps and 5s30s hits a 65bps handle for the first time since Nov 2007. 2s10s has flattened for 3 days straight, 6 of the last 7 days, and 14 of the last 17 days to a 58bps handle... 5s30s has flattened 3 days straight, 6 of the last 7 days, and 16 of the last 19 days to a 65bps handle... As a reminder, it took The Fed hiking rates to 5.25% in the last cycle before investors...

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  • Why Cryptos Will Not Replace Gold As A Store Of Value

    Why Cryptos Will Not Replace Gold As A Store Of Value - Gold versus Bitcoin: The pro-gold argument takes shape- Why cryptocurrencies will not replace gold as a store of value- Similarities between crypto and gold but that does not make them substitutes- Gold remains a highly liquid market, cryptocurrencies continue to be fragmented and difficult to spend- Bitcoin  does not make it an effective hedge against stocks- Gold coins and bars cannot be hacked and vaults are insured This weekend saw...

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  • Millions Upon Millions of Americans Have “Negative” Wealth

    Millions Upon Millions of Americans Have “Negative” Wealth Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin While 3 Americans possess more wealth than 50% of the combined poorest, we now learn that 20% of ALL Americans have zero or negative wealth. I presume by having “negative wealth” they have lived beyond their means for so long their debt burden is all they have to show for their life – very sad that people...

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  • Britain's Gravest Economic Challenge Isn't Brexit

    Authored by Paul Wallace, op-ed via Reuters.com, Few British budgets have mattered as much as the one that Philip Hammond will deliver to the House of Commons on Nov. 22. The chancellor of the exchequer must shore up Theresa May’s perilously shaky government ahead of a vital Brexit summit of European leaders in mid-December. At the same time Hammond has to keep a grip on the public finances. But the gravest challenge he faces is economic: Britain’s persistent productivity blight. Productivity –...

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  • Bubble Dynamics and Market Crashes

    Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, To paraphrase one of the great gems of Wall Street wisdom, “Nothing infuriates a man more than the sight of other people making money.” That’s a pretty good description of what happens during the late stage of a stock market bubble. The bubble participants are making money (at least on a mark-to-market basis) every day. Meanwhile, the more patient, prudent investor is stuck on the sidelines - allocated to cash or low-risk investments while...

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  • 100 Billion Reasons To Have Non-Reportable Assets

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, In early March 1938 in a dusty corner of the Arabian desert, Max Steineke finally had the breakthrough he was hoping for. Steineke was the chief geologist for the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC), a venture owned by what we know today as Chevron. And he hadn’t had a lot of success despite years of effort. Steinke was convinced that massive oil reserves were beneath the sands. He just couldn’t find any. His prized oil well, what was...

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  • BofA's Apocalyptic Forecast: Stocks Flash Crash, Bond Bubble Bursts In H1 2018, War May Follow

    Having predicted back in July that the "most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months", i.e., now, BofA's Michael Hartnett was - in retrospect - wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic - which was as sound then as it is now - Hartnett has not given up on his "bad cop" forecast (not to be mistaken with the S&P target to be unveiled shortly by BofA's equity team and which will probably be around 2,800), and...

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  • What Happened To Cash Flow Growth: The Red Flag In Q3 Earnings

    Listening to Wall Street analysts, or their financial press cheerleaders, one would be left with the impression that earnings season has been gangbusters, and the recent 2-3 quarters of growth are sure to lay the basis for a new golden age in which EPS rises at double-digit rates for years to come. There are just a few problems with this wildly incorrect conclusion. First, after a year of earnings recession and a year in which earnings went nowehere, 2017 is finally catching up to where analysts...

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  • Want Widespread Prosperity? Radically Lower Costs

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, As long as this is business as usual, it's impossible to slash costs and boost widespread prosperity. It's easy to go down the wormhole of complexity when it comes to figuring out why our economy is stagnating for the bottom 80% of households. But it's actually not that complicated: the primary driver of stagnation, decline of small business start-ups, etc. is costs are skyrocketing to the point of unaffordability. As I have pointed out many...

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  • A "New Era" In Chinese Regulation Means Turmoil For $15 Trillion In China's "Shadows"

    The post-Party Congress attempts to deleverage and crack down on the worst abuses in China’s horrific credit bubble - especially the country's $15 trillion in wealth-management products - saw China’s authorities turn their sights on shadow banking and wealth management products (WMPs) specifically. On their way out are "guaranteed returns" and “capital pools”, which had turned the wealth management sector into a Ponzi scheme. In a radical and "shocking" departure from the historic norm,...

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  • Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset

    Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset - Silver remains severely under owned and under valued asset- Entire silver market worth tiny $100 billion shown in one tiny square- "All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization"- Must see 'Money and Markets' infographic shows relative size of key markets: silver bullion, gold bullion, cryptocurrencies/ bitcoin, largest companies, 50 richest people, Fed balance sheet, currency, stocks, property, cash, debt &...

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  • A Fed mistake could hurtle the economy into recession

    Business Insider Michael Collins, the senior investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses monetary policy. He sees the Fed continuing to be transparent with their plan, which he says will likely result in two rate hikes in 2018. He says that there's risk of the Fed hiking too much, too quickly, which would flatten the curve and cause a selloff — and possibly even a recession.

    Business Insider
  • Of Tax Reform & Growth Fairies

    Via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I encourage you to take a few minutes to review my previous analysis of the effectiveness of tax cuts on the economy. Bull Trap – The False Promise Of Tax Cuts 3-Myths About Tax Cuts It’s The Debt, Stupid The Committee For A Responsible Budget penned after the passage of the tax bill: “The House approved debt-financed tax cuts based on predictions of magical economic growth that defy history and all credible analyses. Tax reform should grow the economy and not...

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  • The Stage Has Been Set For The Next Financial Crisis

    Authored by Constantin Gurdgiev via CaymanFinancialReview.com, Last month, the Japanese government auctioned off some US$4 billion worth of new two-year bonds at a new record low yield of negative 0.149 percent. The country’s five-year debt is currently yielding minus 0.135 percent per annum, and its 10-year bonds are trading at -0.001 percent. Strange as it may sound, the safe haven status of Japanese bonds means that there is an ample demand among private investors, especially foreign buyers,...

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  • The Coming Economic Downturn In Canada

    Authored by Deb Shaw via MarketsNow.com, Canadian GDP growth has outperformed this year, helping the Canadian dollar As GDP growth slows and the Bank of Canada turns neutral, catalysts turning negative Crude oil and real estate look set for a downturn, with negative implications for the currency Given its natural resource-based economy, Canada is a boom and bust kind of place. This year, the country has enjoyed a significant boom. Thanks to a government stimulus program, rising corporate...

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  • Is America In Terminal Decline?

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, John Rubino recently posted a graph from Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave that points to some ominous signs. It depicts the S&P 500, combined with consumer confidence and savings rate. As the accompanying video at Elliott Wave, What “Too Confident to Save” Means for Stocks, shows, when the gap between high confidence and low savings is at its widest, a market crash -often- follows. In 2000, the subsequent crash was 39%, in 2007 it was...

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